Where are we headed in 2008?

In comparing the first three months of 2008 to the first three months of 2007, MLS data indicates that the number of ACTIVE, single Family residential listings increased from 252 to 298. An increase of 18%.

New Listing increased by 5% from 110 to 116. Under Contract dropped from 52 to 37 or -28%. The Sold numbers also dropped from 34 to 27 or a 20%. The Average Sales Price increased 7% from $267,535.00 to $287,148.00.

Building sites showed a dramatic increase from 403 to 646 or 60%. New listings dropped by about 7% from 136 to 126. Under Contract dropped from 53 to 29; a -45% drop. Sold lots also dropped by -45% from 42 to 23. The Average Sales Price jumped by 23% from 177,696.00 to $219,517.00.

A famous saying attributed to Benjamin Disraeli is, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." When we look at Star Valley Market Data we must keep in mind that the quarterly numbers are so small that it only takes a slight difference in the data to make the percentage rate of change skyrocket!

For instance, the Single Family Sold Numbers indicate a drop of -20%. That -20% decrease was only a difference of 7-homes! This decrease could easily have been the result of our heavier winter weather or the increase in fuel prices over the last 6-months.

With several home builders pulling out of the Star Valley Market, we believe that the inventory of new and existing homes will remain steady and prices strong. Location, Condition, and Price will continue to dictate what sells and what doesn’t.

We believe that the Building Site portion of the market will not fare as well! While the Sale Prices are up, the Under Contract and Sold data decreased significantly. Add to this the available inventory in the Victor-Driggs-Tetonia area; AND the total number of new lots in the Planning and Zoning pipeline will create a supply that exceeds the demand.

How Important is Timing in Real Estate?

How Important is Timing in Real Estate?

Whether you are a Seller thinking about listing your home or a Buyer preparing to make an offer … Timing is everything!

So … when is the best time to list your home? Many of the Internet Gurus will tell you it is Thursday morning … or Friday morning … or Friday after midnight.

The reasons for these strategies are:

“Because your house will be available to all REALTORS® planning weekend showings.”

“Friday your listing will show zero days on the market. Saturday, the most important day of the real estate week, will only show it as on the market one-day.”

This might be good advice in some markets … but it does not hold water in the Star Valley or Jackson Hole real estate markets. Why?

First, a high percentage of Buyers today start their search on the Internet. The number of people who use the Internet as a significant part of their home buying process has increased from 28% of all buyers in 2000 to 70% of all buyers in 2006.

Another interesting fact is that Internet buyers spend roughly three times longer than traditional buyers in contemplating a home purchase and in touring homes and neighborhoods before ever contacting a real estate agent. Buyers will e-mail us a dozen times with questions on homes; narrow their choices down to a handful and want to see them this spring when they visit Star Valley.

Personally, I believe there is no single “best” time to list your home. However, there are key factors that will influence the sale of your home. Understand these and you will be ahead of the game.

Seasonal Swings are one Factor to Consider
Conventional wisdom says that the best time to list your home is in the spring when there are more homebuyers out looking. Warm weather is only a small part of the equation. How many other homes will you be competing with? Selling in the dead-cold of winter may mean fewer buyers but it also means fewer homes to compete with! There is one time of the year when selling a home is very difficult – from just before Thanksgiving, through Christmas and the New Year – the Holidays.

Supply and Demand
The supply of homes available affects how long a home is on the market before it usually sells. It is critical to look at properties that are similar to yours in price, condition and the B I G one … Location-Location-Location. When you decide on a REALTOR® to list with, ask him/her to provide you with a list of the properties you will be competing with in whatever price range you are considering listing your home at. You increase the odds of selling your home in a reasonable time period if you are not competing with 10, 20 or more similar properties.

Traffic Driven Patterns

There are times where competition can benefit you greatly. If your home is one of several properties listed for sale and your home is better priced; or your home has more desirable features than the competition, those other properties can drive buyer traffic to your listing. REALTORS® will use overpriced properties or properties in poor condition to sell other listings!
Property ConditionRemember the old adage, “You will never get a second chance to make a good first impression?” A good first impression and the Buyer s make plans for step two. A bad first impression and it’s off to look at other homes. We strongly recommend that you do not put your home on the market if there are repairs or other issues. Take care of these before listing your home!

Trends

There are times in a real estate market when certain properties are hot or “trendy.” At present, in Star Valley a very high percentage of our Out-of-State Buyers are looking for log or wood sided homes with the “Western” look. This includes rock or stone accents (including a fireplace), wood, slate, travertine and carpeted floors, large master suites with custom rock and/or tile work in the bathrooms. The secondary trend is for single-story properties. These are in greater demand as the baby-boom generation looks for homes without stairs. Whether it is the trend towards “open floor plans” or away from “quad levels” the perception of properties rises and falls with popular opinion.

When Is the Best Time to Sell? It’s Up To You!

The best time to sell is when you are ready to sell. Once you have made this decision, we encourage you to interview us along with two or three of our competitors. Each agent should prepare free of charge, a Property Profile and Market Analysis on your home (including a list of recommendations that need to be addressed before listing the home), a marketing plan for your home and a list of properties that you will be competing with.

One of the first things a REALTOR® does each day when they boot up their computer is look at the MLS Hot Sheet. This Hot Sheet shows all real estate related activity for the last 24-hours.

Your home should be listed in the Teton-Jackson Hole Multiple List Service as soon as possible. After all, this target group has over 800 members that are looking for homes for the buyers they represent. To gain maximum marketing impact with these agents, the listing must be market-ready, cleaned, staged, photographed, virtual tour and brochures ready to go, sign and riders on the property AND all the information and photos entered into the MLS system!

Is Now the Time to Buy?

Finding the Hot Real Estate Markets

©2007 by Wendy Patton and Justin Ryan of Investing Tours, Inc.

Donald Trump’s name is synonymous with BIG PROFITS in Hot Real Estate Markets. He speaks at huge conventions about getting motivated, he writes books, appears regularly in the news. But he doesn’t talk about how he finds his deals. Donald Trump is one of the best known real estate investors in the world, but he doesn’t tell us where to invest.

In our article on Emerging Market Investing we talk about the real estate adage “Location, Location, Location.” This is a critical component of finding where to invest. But just as important as location is TIMING. Timing, Timing, Timing. Donald Trump doesn’t know just where to buy but he also knows WHEN to buy.

Most people, the media included, will tell you that you should be buying real estate when it’s going up – buy when everyone else is buying. Nothing could be farther from the truth! Donald Trump and other EXPERIENCED Investors will tell you that more money is made in down markets than can be made in up markets. If you buy when everyone else is buying you will also be SELLING when EVERYONE ELSE IS SELLING. Does that sound like the formula to great wealth? If you are selling when everyone else is selling, there is a name for that. It’s called a BUYER’S MARKET. That’s a market when conditions favor the BUYERS not the sellers.

Does this mean you want to buy when a market is on its way down? Rarely. The optimum time to buy, the critical TIMING component of real estate investing, the time that Donald Trump buys, is when a market has already gone down and is poised, on the brink, of going back up. This kind of market is still a buyer’s market. Conditions favor the buyers not the sellers. That’s what we want as investors, don’t we? Conditions that favor us!

The reason we buy when the market is poised to go back up and not on the way down, or already down and languishing in being down, is because we as investors want to make a profit and we don’t want to have to wait a decade to make it. When a market is going down or is hovering at rock bottom, we don’t always know how long it will be there.

We at Investing Tours, Donald Trump and other experienced investors put a lot of effort into finding these markets that are poised to go back up, these Emerging Markets. Unlike Donald Trump though, we are going to tell you about how to find the proper timing.
The secret to finding the proper timing is the market indicators.

All real estate markets go through cycles, upwards & downwards, peak and rock bottom. The market indicators tell us the WHEN, they tell us what part of the cycle any given real estate market is in. Donald Trump uses them, we use them, savvy, experienced investors use them.

Let’s take a look at some of the key indicators that tell us where in the cycle a market is in.
Sales of Existing Homes

This indicator will allow you to feel the pulse of the local market. It is one of the most critical indicators. Existing homes sales is a statistic that shows how many homes have sold in a given month, and it tells us how many buyers are coming to the market. By looking at monthly sales data you will be able to determine when a sales slump has started to turn. What you are looking for in this data is a trend over time, adjusting for seasonal changes. A brief spike of sales in one month is not going to make for an emerging market.

Permits for New Home Construction

Real estate construction is the largest industry in the United States. It affects the national and local economies tremendously. Construction companies, especially the larger ones, are very tuned into real estate markets. As such when they perceive that a market slump is starting to turn for the better they will increase their building, consequently pulling more building permits.

As demand for homes increases they will continue to build more and more. Like existing home sales you are looking at the trend over time, adjusting for seasonal changes.

Months Supply

This indicator tells us how many months it would take to sell all of the homes that are currently on the market at the current sales pace. Typically when the months supply is below 5 ½ months (i.e. it would take 5 ½ months to sell all of the homes on the market at the existing sales pace) a market is experiencing high demand. If the supply is greater than 6 ½ months the market is experiencing low demand. By tracking the supply data you can watch as the trend moves to dropping below the 5 ½ month supply level. This will tell you when to buy.

Foreclosures

Mortgage foreclosures run towards the opposite of the other indicators. When the number of foreclosures reach their peak in an area it means a market has hit rock bottom. As the volume of foreclosures starts to decline it means the market is turning and moving back upwards in the cycle.

Days on Market

The number of days on the market is the amount of time it takes for a home to sell from the day it’s listed until the day it receives an offer. In some areas it will be the time until the actual closing occurs. If the average number of days on the market is long, say 120 or more days, this indicates that the market is moving slowly and it takes time to sell homes. If the time on market is 60 days or less then homes are selling quicker. By watching the days on market trends you will be able to watch as a market shifts from homes selling slowly towards homes selling quicker, indicating increased demand and price appreciation.

To determine where a market is in its cycle of upwards, downwards, peak or bottom, we need to evaluate all of this data together. Donald Trump doesn’t just say “Foreclosures are down in Tucson, it must be a good time to invest.” We need to look at the aggregate data. It is important to note that market data doesn’t all line up neatly in one month either. We may see foreclosures starting to drop, then a couple of months later existing home sales creep upwards, followed by the months supply moving downwards a few months after that.

There are times too when market indicators contradict each other. Houston Texas recently gave us a perfect example of this. Foreclosures were on the rise in Houston but permits for new home construction and existing home sales were also up. In this case home values were going up despite the rise in foreclosures.

This market indicator data, along with other key data is what helps us to determine WHEN it is a good time to buy in a market. You can be sure that experienced investors take this data into account as they choose the markets they plan to invest in as does Donald Trump.

NOTE: Whether you are an investor, a buyer or a seller, we (your Star Valley Home Team) believe your real estate agent should have this information readily available to you so that you can make informed decisions!

Baby Boomers

Surfing the web, I ran across this post from Dave Schleck on "The Boomer Blog." It is a daily press article, I thought many of you (REALTORS) might find interesting!

dailypress.com

Never mistake boomers for actual old people

There are seven words or phrases that are seven deadly sins when said to the generation of people born between 1946 and 1965.

By DAVE SCHLECK

247-7430

January 30, 2008

Perhaps you know about the list of dirty words that comedian George Carlin once uttered on the radio, leading to a Supreme Court ruling against foul language.

And we've all heard about the seven deadly sins. Author Chuck Underwood combines these thoughts with his "Seven Dirty Words to Never Link to Baby Boomers." Boomers rule these days, and Underwood's insights are included in his book, "The Generational Imperative:

Understanding generational differences in the American Workplace, Marketplace, And Living Room."Underwood writes, "With this generation, never say never." If you're talking or selling to baby boomers, here are the seven words Underwood says to never use ... and why:

1. Senior Citizen: A noble label for mom and dad, but not for Boomers.

2. Retiree: Boomers will never retire. This generation defines itself by its work, by its contribution. They might retire from career No. 1 but promptly begin career No. 2, perhaps in volunteerism or starting their own business or going back to school to learn a new trade.

3. Aging: Ohmygosh, donnnnnnnnnn't!!

4. Golden Years: Ditto!

5. Silver Years: Good rule of thumb? No references to any precious metals.

6. Mature: Never insult Boomers by calling them mature. Regardless the wrinkles on the outside, they will always be Mouseketeers on the inside.

7. Prime Time: To describe their future as the "prime time" of their lives is to discount their past.

Boomers feel they've been in Prime Time every second of their lives, squeezing each day for all of its satisfactions.

Copyright © 2008, Newport News, Va., Daily Press

Have a GREAT summer!

Internet Presence

Is Your REALTOR Internet Savvy?

According to most experts, 80% of the buyers start their search on the internet to find a home. If your home can’t be found on the internet, you’re missing 80% of the buyers ... especially out of state buyers!

If you are considering listing your house, ranch, farm, or other real estate ... you need to know how internet-savvy the listing agent is that you are considering.

Here are a few tips:
Make sure your new listing agent has a website; not just a web page! A website will have a URL like our personal web site at http://www.starvalleyhometeam.com/, not a web page that is buried deep in the bowels of the listing broker’s website with a URL like this one for our office, RE/MAX Advantage Realty – http://www.wyomingadvantage.com/.

Web pages are nothing more than an internet “business card” and do very little if anything to promote your property.

Free e-mail accounts such as Hotmail, MSN and Yahoo are a big clue that an agent isn’t serious enough about being in real estate to spend the $20 or so a month to ensure that they will receive all of their e-mails.

Will your agent submit your listing to www.REMAX.com, http://www.realtor.com/, http://www.yahoo.com/, http://www.trulia.com/, http://www.craigslist.com/ other major real estate sites to ensure maximum internet exposure?

Do they have a web blog such as http://wyomingadvantage.blogspot.com/?

What about pictures of your property? Good quality professional grade pictures and lots of them? Do they do Visual Tours (360-degree tours of your listing)?

Go ahead ... check out our internet marketing presence for yourself! Try searching “joe mack shantal petersen remax star valley wyoming” on any of the major search engines such as Google, Yahoo, or MSN and see what happens (usually we will be 6 or 7 of the top ten hits you get!).

Why? Because your Star Valley Home Team knows and understands the Star Valley Real Estate Market Conditions and has the Knowledge, Expeerience, Tools and the Technology to assist you better this year than any agent in the Star Valley Market area!

Crystal Ball - 2008 Forecast

Past - Present - Future, Keys to 2008

Year over Year Comparison 2006 vs. 2007

According to data from the Teton (Jackson Hole) MLS, the total number of Single Family Residential sales in Lincoln County was down 7% in 2007. There were 239 units sold in 2006 compared to 221 units sold in 2007.

While conventional wisdom nationwide was that prices were dropping due to excess inventory, Lincoln County posted strong gains.

The average Sales Price was up 13% from $279,744 to $316,636. The Sold Volume increased 4% from $66,858,904 to $69,976,666. The Total number of Active Listings increased 7% from 564 to 607 units with New Listings posting a 5% gain from 442 to 465 units.

Vacant Land did not do as well! In 2006 there was a total of 695 Active Listings. This increased 43% to 998 for 2007. New Listings increased 33% from 547 units to 731 units. The number of listings Under Contract dropped 32% from 295 units in 2006 to 198 units in 2007. The number of units sold decreased 23% from 274 in 2006 to 209 in 2007.

Sold Volume was basically unchanged at $35,260,987 (2006) to $35,574,037 (2007).
While the number of units sold dropped significantly, the Average Sales Price increased 32% from $128,690 to $170,211.

Predictions are based on historical data and trends plus experience plus known future facts plus a little bit of luck. As always, we go back to our mantra: All real estate is local. There are wide variations with no one neighborhood trend looking like another. Some areas will see housing activity and prices moving up and some moving down.

The real estate team of Petersen & Mack believes that we will see overall, a relatively healthy market in Star Valley for 2008. There are several reasons for this. First we have second-home buyers looking to escape the large cities … especially in the hotter climates of Florida, Arizona and southern California.

Second, we have some 17-million plus baby boomers … retirees … looking for that special place to call home.

Third, we have more and more Jackson Hole residents looking for a more affordable property (more home for the buck) for their families.

Have a GREAT Day!

Joe & Shantal

your

Star Valley Home Team

The TRUTH About the Star Valley Real Estate Market

Our comments on Low Ball Offers spurred one interested reader to comment. I agree with part of his/her statement regarding that the residents don't want to change!

The "Old Timers" see the "Outsiders" (anyone that didn't come over the mountains with the original settlers) as ruining the Valley! In a sense this is true! Once a quiet farming and dairy herd community, Star Valley today has or is slowly becoming a resort community in the shadows of Jackson Hole.

The community is made of of three or four basic groups: The vacation, retirement or second home owner from a "hot" climate (California, Arizona, Texas, Florida and Southern Utah); the service provider or blue collar worker that commutes to Jackson Hole each day; the "Old Timer" families that have been here for generations; and their kids that have left home and now moved back!

I would tend to disagree with the comments that "Star Valley is not connected in any way to Jackson Hole. Most visitors make a u-turn at High School Street." A very high percentage of our buyers are from out of state. As a whole most cannot or will not pay the prices we are seeing for real estate in Jackson Hole. These buyers start at the epicenter (Jackson Hole) then move outward to the first, second or third ring of communities. These buyers are very selective in where and what they purchase!

"The valley depends on outside money. " True! Each dollar that comes into the community is for lack of a better word ... fresh blood! It stimulates the communities economy and helps prevent the area from drying up and blowing away.

So ... what is the truth about our local real estate market?

Home and land buyers along with real estate investors continue to pour money into the Star Valley Real Estate market. Since the "discovery" of Jackson Hole by the rich and famous in 1992, our real estate market has exploded. We have seen segments of the market double and triple in value creating record breaking prices for homes and land ... All of this in face of the National sub-prime lending fiasco and the news media painting a picture of the real estate doomsday that is about to occur.

So why are buyers and investors and developers looking at Star Valley? There are several reasons. First, we have 17-Million baby-boomers with time, disposable income and good health that are looking for that special place. We have an older generation that is slowly passing away and leaving their wealth to their children ad they are looking for that special place. And, we have a lot of personal and corporate wealth in the world today. Many of these individuals are looking for weekend escapes or getaways!

Bottom line ... Star Valley real estate is a very good value compared to the trends occurring in Telluride, Vail, Steamboat Springs, Aspen, Breckenridge and other resort communities.

Savvy buyers and investors are investing right now in Star Valley!

Star Valley Market Conditions - August 2007

The National real estate report just released shows declines in the total existing home sales and the median price for April, May and June. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, 97 of 149 metropolitan areas showed a year-over-year increase in the median existing-family home price.

In comparing Jan 1, 2007 thru August 15, 2007 to the same period in 2006 for Star Valley, the Teton MLS Data reports the total number of active single-family homes in Lincoln County increased by 7% (453 to 486). New listings are up 2% (335 to 344). The number Under Contract changed slightly (164 to 166 or 1%).

The number of homes that have sold is down by 7% (142 to 132). The Average Sales Price us up from $275,823.00 to $309,942.00 or 12%. In 2006, Sellers received 97% of the Listing Price. This year it is running at 96%!

Vacant Land Building Sites is another area we monitor closely. With the moratorium on subdividing land in Lincoln County lifted a year ago, we have seen an explosion in new lots listed! The number of building sites jumped from 524 in 2006 to 720 (37%) in 2007. New Listings are up 19% (379 to 453) and the Average Sales price is up 58% ($102,994.00 to $163,422.00).

The bad news is that the number of lots Under Contract is down 32% (204 to 138) and the number Sold down 20% (165 to 131). Typically, vacant lots are purchased for New Home Construction by a builder for a spec home or the homeowner for a custom home build job.
There is an old saying that real estate is local. While many markets have declined, Star Valley real estate continues to hold its own in spite of all the problems in the mortgage industry and the housing industry.

That does not mean that national events will not affect our market! Unlike real estate, the mortgage industry operates on a national if not global scale. This will result in some unpredictability in our market over the next 12 to 18 months.

When we look at the Vacant Building Site data, we believe that we are already seeing the first signs of a shift in the market place! If any area of the country can survive the "Perfect Real Estate Storm" we believe it is Star Valley!

Low Ball Offers - Is the Gamble Worth It?

Aces & Eights is known around the world as the Dead Man's Hand. So ... what does that have to do with Real Estate? Lately I have read several articles on how to make a low ball offer and get the Seller(s) to accept it.

Most readers (including real estate agents) forget that all real estate is local! In Detroit or L.A. or New York there may be more Sellers than Buyers, a large inventory of unsold, new construction homes, etc. You "might" be able to make a low offer and buy the home. That does not apply to all real estate markets.

Star Valley is a prime example. We are a resort community steeped in the shadows of Jackson Hole's World Class Resort and Yellowstone Park. Rarely do we see situations where a job transfer forces a sale, or there is a large workforce layoff. Our "large" builders build three or four (that is 3 or 4!) homes a year ... not several hundred! A high percentage of homes are second homes, vacation and/or investment properties.

In our present market, presenting a low ball offer is a very big gamble that will usually offend the Seller. Usually, once the Seller is offended no matter what the Buyer does next, the Seller does not want to work with them or there agent.

The big question for the Buyer is to determine what to offer? How much you can spend is no concern to the Seller. The Sellers want top dollar for their product and will overprice!

I encourage Buyers (and their Agents) to research the local market conditions. Create a Comparable Market Analysis (CMA) the same as if you were going to list that property For Sale. While knowing what similar properties are being Listed for, the most important number is what are they "Selling" for.

Other factors to consider are how many days has the home has been on the market (DOM), any offers, price reductions (or increases), etc. Here again I urge caution! I have seen numerous articles that you should never list a home for more than 30-60-90 days!

Depending on the price range, properties in Star Valley will average from 100+ days to over 400-days! A low ball offer based on DOM is, in all probability considering our present market conditions, Aces & Eights ... a Dead Hand!

Mortgage Fraud

If all the articles I read are even close to being accurate, mortgage fraud is BIG with a capital "B" business, it is a criminal offense and yes, it does happen in Wyoming!

The warning signs of abusive lending, along with a borrower's Bill of Rights and links to reporting abusive lending can be viewed at http://www.stopmortgagefraud.com.

Why should you care? Mortgage Fraud hurts lending institutions and real estate professionals as well as the overall health of the U.S. economy, it also cons a large number of homeowners every year. If you're buying property, refinancing a mortgage, or looking for creative ways to eliminate home loans and other debts, you are a potential target.